TOKYO – Japan’s thriving tourism sector is currently grappling with an unexpected and unusual challenge: significant disruption to international travel attributed not to geopolitical events or natural disasters, but to a viral online rumor. The rumor, predicting a catastrophic earthquake on July 5, 2025, has gained widespread traction, particularly on social media, leading to real-world consequences for airlines and tour operators.
The Unlikely Source: A 1999 Manga
The origin of this disruptive prophecy is traced back to a 1999 Japanese manga titled “The Future I Saw” by artist Ryo Tatsuki. The work, which gained notoriety for seemingly referencing a past disaster in 2011, has now become the focal point of a new, unscientific prediction circulating online. This prediction specifically points to July 5, 2025, as the date for a major seismic event. Despite its fictional source, the rumor has fueled considerable anxiety, particularly among potential travelers.
Real-World Impact on Travel
The panic generated by the online buzz, amplified on social media platforms, has translated into tangible disruptions for travel to Japan. Hong Kong has emerged as a key area where this fear has manifested significantly.
One notable consequence is the action taken by Hong Kong-based carrier Greater Bay Airlines. Citing weak demand directly linked to the earthquake rumor, the airline has announced the suspension of its service to Tokushima, Japan. This decision underscores the immediate economic impact of the viral speculation on specific routes.
Similarly, major tour agencies are reporting a drastic decline in bookings. EGL Tours, a prominent player in the travel industry, has reported that bookings to Japan have been slashed by half. This sharp drop has occurred despite efforts by tour operators to mitigate fears by offering significant discounts and even specialized earthquake insurance, indicating the depth of the concern among potential travelers.
Scientific Consensus vs. Online Rumor
Japan is situated on the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire and experiences frequent tremors. The country has robust building codes and advanced early warning systems due to its geological reality. However, this does not lend credibility to the specific date predicted by the manga.
Seismologists are unanimous in their assessment that the rumor lacks any scientific basis. Robert Geller, a distinguished seismologist at the University of Tokyo, has publicly emphasized that there is absolutely no scientific evidence or methodology that supports the manga’s prediction for July 5, 2025. Earthquake prediction remains an inexact science, and specific date predictions years in advance, especially those originating from non-scientific sources like fiction, are universally dismissed by the scientific community.
Adding further context, the manga’s author, Ryo Tatsuki, has also reportedly distanced herself from claims of prophetic ability, stating that she is not a prophet.
Navigating the Disinformation Landscape
The situation highlights the growing challenge posed by the rapid spread of unverified information and rumors via social media. A fictional work, interpreted and amplified online without scientific validation, has managed to sow enough fear to impact international travel and the economic prospects of a key tourism destination.
While Japan continues its preparations for potential seismic activity based on scientific data and historical patterns, the current disruption serves as a unique case study of how online panic, rooted in fiction rather than fact, can generate significant real-world consequences for industries like tourism and aviation.
As July 5, 2025, approaches, the travel industry and authorities will likely continue efforts to counter the rumor with factual information, although the current cancellations and booking declines demonstrate the potent influence of the viral prediction on public perception and behavior. The episode serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance between online narratives and tangible economic realities.
